Predicting Fall Freshman Series: Renew or Redline?
Each spring, television networks take a long, hard look inward to adjust, recommit, or, in tougher years, completely overhaul their creative strategy and programming for the year ahead. Meanwhile, audiences and advertisers alike sit anxiously by, waiting to see whether a favorite show – or, in the case of advertisers, a favorite money-maker – will be renewed, or if an alternative series is necessary to fill programming gaps.
At Whip Media Group, we have taken a parallel journey over each of the past three years to build and refine predictive models around the potential success or shortfall of a TV series. With the help of users from our TV Time app – the world’s largest television and movie tracking platform through which we collect unique first-party engagement and watch data – we have uncovered critical indicators to inform and predict broadcaster renewal decisions, particularly around debuting, or “freshman” series.